Political Party Alignment

Did your political party win in 2006? Read the article below to understand the dynamics the 2006 elections and what it may mean in the future.

Robert E. Freer, Jr., The Free Enterprise Foundation

Well, after twelve years of trying, the dog finally caught the truck! It remains to be seen whether the Democrats will know what to do with control of Capitol Hill now that they have it, nor can we know whether the “Republicrats,” who lost control by forgetting who they were, will have the good sense to return to being Main Street Republicans.

What interests me from the perspective of national policy is the almost perfect bell curve of voters, representing a substantial percentage of independent or loosely affiliated partisans that swung this election from Republican control to Democratic. We have previously noted the growth in the independent block from 30% to almost 40% of the electorate. This is larger than either major party can claim and represents a real opportunity for political realignment.

If the utterances of the incoming Congressional Committee chairs are any indication, they realize the potential, understand they are on a short leash with a fickle public and are sounding a whole lot more middle-of-the-road than anyone can remember. The recent interviews with a newly humble Charles Rangel discussing the limitations of what he can do as Chairman of Ways and Means are a far cry from his histrionics as a minority member of the committee. Cliché though it be, control brings with it responsibility and accountability.

In this regard, I expect continuing low level warfare for the heart and soul of The Democratic Party. In order to capture the major portion of Bell Curve voters and turn them into Democrats, the party would have to disavow the liberal voters who are identified in the public’s mind as the heart and soul of their Party. Those Democrats who made up the Democratic Leadership Council that powered Bill Clinton to two national victories, only to be repudiated by the Democratic left wing, may now be its salvation. They certainly will be the power behind Hillary’s campaign, which in truth is already well advanced. The radical left will not go quietly, however, and many of its finest are in critical positions within the Party machinery to wage trench warfare.

For Republicans, it is a waiting game. Will Speaker Pelosi, representing one of the most liberal districts in the country, backup her new centrist voice with moderate proposals or replace her new found moderation with liberal action consistent with her record. I know where I would put my bet! Charlie Cook reports in his column that one long serving Republican has advised that he and his colleagues would do well to work with moderate Blue Dog Democrats to remain relevant in the new Congress. I suspect that advice will be ignored. In its place, I expect a replay of Newt Gingrich’s strategy from the 90’s of guerilla warfare leading up to a rematch in 2008.

Speaker Pelosi’s First 100 hour proposal is already under threat with not all factions of the Party willing to adopt broad lobbying reform. Other aspects of the program appeal to the Democratic base but will alienate small business by substantially raising the minimum wage.

The Democrats promise as well to promote stem cell research and authorize direct negotiation with drug companies to lower prices for Medicare. While the former is likely to survive a veto, it will be at the cost of a re-energized right to life lobby. As for direct drug price negotiations, while such negotiation, in the short term will be successful, the cost in the pace of new drug development is likely to be significantly slowed. The Drug companies are realizing significant profits currently, but the cost of new developments is so astronomical, many of these companies are only one failure or one law suit away from forced merger with a rival.

Other aspects of Democratic control will rile financial markets by threatening the existing tax cuts scheduled to expire in 2010 and the 15% tax on capital gains and perhaps, even threaten an increase in the top tax bracket to pay for adjustments to the alternative minimum tax that will trap an estimated 23 million taxpayers. The Washington Post recently estimated an additional 100,000 homes in the Washington Metropolitan Area will be captured by the drop in the level of its threshold amount that is already part of the law. .

The forces of disunion in the Democratic Party are almost irresistible in the absence of White House Control. Any strategy hatched by party leadership to capture the “Bell Curve” will almost assuredly be scuttled by the rank and file. As for those Democrats representing “Republican” districts, they will be trapped between a party leadership forced to the left and energized campaigns already begun by many of the same candidates they overcame in this election. They will be hard pressed to fashion a winning strategy to overcome the rematch in the absence of George Bush on the ballot.

It appears that neither party is in a position to realize on the opportunity provided by The Bell Curve to sustain a realignment of the American electorate. Like the demise of the Federalists and the Whigs, the 40% of our electorate who hold the balance of power are likely to wander back and forth between the two major parties unless a new entity powered by leadership from within that speaks for their interest comes along.

Copyright © 2007 by Robert E. Freer, Jr. All rights reserved

About the author: Robert E. Freer, Jr. is President of The Free Enterprise Foundation. He is a Visiting Professor, at The Citadel and elected in 2005 to be their first John S. Grinalds Leader in Residence. A regular contributor to the Mercury, He can be reached by E-mail at The Citadel . Copies of his earlier columns can be found The Free Enterprise Foundation.

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